For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

CrisisTrend

Crisis models, applied to today

Scores as of November 2026. How scores and periods are calculated: Methodology.

Crisis scores and estimated periods, one row per card
NameCrisis predictedCrisis scoreEstimated periodIndicators and current readings
Robert ShillerDerived by this site, not this person's prediction.Dot-com crash (2000–2002)99/100Extreme2 of 2 indicators in the most extreme 10% of their history2027–2030Precision: YearWhy?
Robert ShillerDerived by this site, not this person's prediction.Housing bust and global financial crisis (2007–2009)98/100Extreme2 of 2 indicators in the most extreme 10% of their history2027–2030Precision: YearWhy?
Warren BuffettDerived by this site, not this person's prediction.Dot-com crash (2000–2002)100/100Extreme2 of 3 indicators in the most extreme 10% of their history2028–2030Precision: YearWhy?
Jeremy GranthamDerived by this site, not this person's prediction.Dot-com crash (2000–2002)99/100Extreme2 of 2 indicators in the most extreme 10% of their history2027–2030Precision: YearWhy?
  • S&P Real Price vs. Long-Run TrendHow many standard deviations the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite price sits above or below its long-run trend.: 2.54 Standard deviationsOct 2026 · Updated 2026-11-11 · Source
  • Shiller CAPE (P/E10)S&P Composite price divided by the 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings.: 40.71 RatioOct 2026 · Updated 2026-11-11 · Source
Nouriel RoubiniDerived by this site, not this person's prediction.Housing bust and recession (2007–2009)76/100High2 of 6 indicators in the most extreme 10% of their historyNot elevatedWhy?
Ray DalioDerived by this site, not this person's prediction.2008 debt crisis (2007–2009)40/100Low1 of 5 indicators in the most extreme 10% of their historyNot elevatedWhy?