Encyclopedia

One page per indicator used by the crisis models.

• 10-Year Treasury Yield — Yield on the 10-year US Treasury note.
• Corporate Profits to GDP — After-tax corporate profits as a percent of GDP.
• Debt Growth minus GDP Growth — Year-over-year growth of US nonfinancial debt minus growth of GDP.
• Fed Funds Rate Change (12 Months) — Change in the effective federal funds rate over the past 12 months.
• Home Price Change (Year over Year) — Percent change in the FHFA US house price index over four quarters.
• Home Prices to Household Income — FHFA US house price index divided by median household income.
• Household Debt Service Ratio — Household debt payments as a percent of disposable income.
• Housing Starts — New privately owned housing units started, seasonally adjusted annual rate.
• Market Value of Equities to GNP (Buffett Indicator) — Market value of US nonfinancial corporate equities as a percent of GNP.
• Personal Saving Rate — Personal saving as a percent of disposable personal income.
• Real Home Price Index — FHFA US house price index divided by consumer prices.
• S&P Composite Dividend Yield — Annual dividends of the S&P Composite divided by its price.
• S&P Real Price vs. Long-Run Trend — How many standard deviations the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite price sits above or below its long-run trend.
• Shiller CAPE (P/E10) — S&P Composite price divided by the 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings.
• WTI Crude Oil Price — Spot price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil.
• Yield Curve (10-Year minus 3-Month) — 10-year Treasury yield minus 3-month Treasury yield.