CrisisTrend
How dangerous is the US stock market right now, according to the indicators that once called a crisis?
Risk monitor
Data last updated 2026-11-11 · Sources checked automatically every day at 22:30 UTC
- Shiller CAPE (P/E10)40.71 RatioOct 2026
- S&P Composite Dividend Yield1.10 PercentJun 2026
- Real Home Price Index216.56 Index ratioQ2 2026
- Home Prices to Household Income7.87 Index ratio2025
- 10-Year Treasury Yield4.98 PercentNov 10, 2026
- Corporate Profits to GDP13.14 PercentQ2 2026
- Market Value of Equities to GNP (Buffett Indicator)255.08 PercentQ2 2026
- S&P Real Price vs. Long-Run Trend2.54 Standard deviationsOct 2026
- Home Price Change (Year over Year)3.03 PercentQ2 2026
- Housing Starts1,221.00 Thousands of unitsSep 2026
- WTI Crude Oil Price99.64 Dollars per barrelNov 3, 2026
- Fed Funds Rate Change (12 Months)-0.21 Percentage pointsOct 2026
- Personal Saving Rate3.80 PercentSep 2026
- Household Debt Service Ratio11.11 PercentQ2 2026
- Debt Growth minus GDP Growth0.11 Percentage pointsQ2 2026
- Yield Curve (10-Year minus 3-Month)0.68 Percentage pointsNov 10, 2026
4/6crisis models score 90 or higher
9/16indicators in the most extreme 10% of their own history
- Shiller CAPE (P/E10)S&P Composite price divided by the 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings.40.71RatioExtreme · At or above 98% of its own historyOct 2026 · Updated 2026-11-11 · Source
- S&P Composite Dividend YieldAnnual dividends of the S&P Composite divided by its price.1.10PercentExtreme · At or below 99% of its own historyJun 2026 · Updated 2026-11-11 · Source
- Real Home Price IndexFHFA US house price index divided by consumer prices.216.56Index ratioExtreme · At or above 98% of its own historyQ2 2026 · Updated 2026-11-11 · Source
- Home Prices to Household IncomeFHFA US house price index divided by median household income.7.87Index ratioExtreme · At or above 97% of its own history2025 · Updated 2026-11-11 · Source
- 10-Year Treasury YieldYield on the 10-year US Treasury note.4.98PercentElevated · At or above 67% of its own historyNov 10, 2026 · Updated 2026-11-11 · Source
- Corporate Profits to GDPAfter-tax corporate profits as a percent of GDP.13.14PercentExtreme · At or above 100% of its own historyQ2 2026 · Updated 2026-11-11 · Source
- Market Value of Equities to GNP (Buffett Indicator)Market value of US nonfinancial corporate equities as a percent of GNP.255.08PercentExtreme · At or above 100% of its own historyQ2 2026 · Updated 2026-11-11 · Source
- S&P Real Price vs. Long-Run TrendHow many standard deviations the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite price sits above or below its long-run trend.2.54Standard deviationsExtreme · At or above 99% of its own historyOct 2026 · Updated 2026-11-11 · Source
- Home Price Change (Year over Year)Percent change in the FHFA US house price index over four quarters.3.03PercentHigh · At or below 76% of its own historyQ2 2026 · Updated 2026-11-11 · Source
- Housing StartsNew privately owned housing units started, seasonally adjusted annual rate.1,221.00Thousands of unitsElevated · At or below 74% of its own historySep 2026 · Updated 2026-11-11 · Source
- WTI Crude Oil PriceSpot price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil.99.64Dollars per barrelExtreme · At or above 93% of its own historyNov 3, 2026 · Updated 2026-11-11 · Source
- Fed Funds Rate Change (12 Months)Change in the effective federal funds rate over the past 12 months.-0.21Percentage pointsLow · At or above 38% of its own historyOct 2026 · Updated 2026-11-11 · Source
- Personal Saving RatePersonal saving as a percent of disposable personal income.3.80PercentExtreme · At or below 93% of its own historySep 2026 · Updated 2026-11-11 · Source
- Household Debt Service RatioHousehold debt payments as a percent of disposable income.11.11PercentLow · At or above 22% of its own historyQ2 2026 · Updated 2026-11-11 · Source
- Debt Growth minus GDP GrowthYear-over-year growth of US nonfinancial debt minus growth of GDP.0.11Percentage pointsLow · At or above 40% of its own historyQ2 2026 · Updated 2026-11-11 · Source
- Yield Curve (10-Year minus 3-Month)10-year Treasury yield minus 3-month Treasury yield.0.68Percentage pointsElevated · At or below 68% of its own historyNov 10, 2026 · Updated 2026-11-11 · Source
Colours show where each reading sits in its own history (subscore):Extreme 90–100High 75–89Elevated 50–74Low 0–49· How it works
The indicators that called past crises
Before the dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis, a few well-known economists and investors read the danger in public data — stock valuations, house prices, interest rates and debt — and warned about it in public.
For the money managers among them, acting on those warnings protected their own and their clients' money. One firm turned defensive in 1999 and lost clients for it, then won record new business in 2002 after the bubble burst.1 Another grew its book value 10% in 2002 while the S&P 500 fell 22%.2 A third finished 2008 with a positive return, in a year when the average hedge fund lost 19%.3
CrisisTrend applies each of those indicator sets to today's US stock market, automatically. Every number links to its public source.
See every crisis model, applied to today
- The messenger shoots back — Institutional Investor, 2003
- 2002 Shareholder Letter — Berkshire Hathaway, 2003
- Ray Dalio on the anniversary of the financial crisis — CNBC, 2018